by Marc on January 24, 2010

Free forex analysis for the week ahead. Hi, I have posted a sample of my daily forex analysis & videos below. Whilst you are here I would just like to point out that the revamp of our Free Forex Forum is almost complete & our new moderators, retired pro forex traders (25 years experience trading forex at the highest level)  have started to post and will be there for tips and advice as well as an “Ask the experts” section where they will give detailed replies to the best questions of the week.
Jay & Juile have posted their abbreviated biographies in the “Introduce yourself” section, so please check it out and get posting!
I would never stoop so low as to say ” I told you so”,

O.K I will – “I told you so“!

We waited and struggled through some difficult days last week only for everything to come at once on Friday. This is the frustrating part about forex, but if you can live with the “lows” and have enough self control to wait for price to come to you & your methods, you will be rewarded with some great “highs”.
I was going to have a day off but I had a look at my charts at the London open & the Gbp/Yen broke out upwards of the 15 minute box, but above it there was a 15 minute & 4 hour 200ema & a daily 55ema as well as 147.00 psychological level that had taken weeks to break. Therefore previous support became resistance as I had pointed out in Thursdays analysis. In other words there were a multitude of reasons why price would react in this area.
It was a very similar situation on the $/Yen with lots of emas above & price pulling back to 90.54 previous support line. On top of that daily 50% pullbacks on the Aud/$ & Nzd/$ worked perfectly. By now you know the moral of the story ad nauseum. Patience & discipline- oh no here he goes again!!
How many of you took trades last week because you were desperate to trade or sick of waiting? I used to do that all the time in my early days. It is also why it is important to keep a record of your trades. Write down where, when & most importantly, WHY you entered a trade. Take a screen shot. Then at the end of the week sit down and go back over them. Often it is glaringly obvious in hindsight why a trade did or did not win. That is why so many supposed forex gurus are so believable when they show you old charts. You will notice that hardly any will commit to paper or video BEFORE the event.
Right, now that I I have got that off my chest on to The Forex Week Ahead.
Lots of news this week at the end of a week of some MAJOR break outs on weekly charts. We should be in for some fun & lots of volatility this week. There are interest rate decisions on lots of pairs USA home news, & lots of GDP figures. On top of all that there is the the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. This 4 day annual jamboree sees many of the worlds  central bankers, senior politicians and business leaders all congregating in Switzerland, along with the worlds financial reporters & commentators. This is often a recipe for huge volatility & sudden swings as they all vie to fill headlines with “off the record” quotes. You will know by now that unexpected speeches/comments can have a massive effect on the currency markets so we will have to be very wary later in the week.
Bollinger Bands: Have been hugely important in the last few months on the weekly as well as daily charts and i have been placing much more emphasis on them. Remember, if they open on these larger time-frames it usually signifies a move through & if they slam shut a reversal, or at least hesitation.
M1 method: We have had a lot of gaps at market open in the last few months which can kill off the M1, London open method on a Monday. Take a look at the market open to see if it is worth getting up early/staying up late for this strategy.
LMT Forex Formula: We have been waiting for new trends to establish themselves. Lots of pairs currently have more than 3 red or green bars so we have a good chance in the next few days of some decent signals after last weeks hectic activity.
Euro/$: Price finally broke & closed below the weekly trend line & 55ema that has held going back to early 2009. This is a MAJOR break out. Standard operating procedure is that we now need, dare I say it, look for a a pullback, ideally as far as 1.4325. However price will struggle at 1.4200 & Weekly 50% fib pullback is at 1.4420 & 61.8% & weekly 55ema is at 1.1460 so look for clues there. I would not recommend this as a forward order/daily trade due to the large number of possible entries. Best traded if you are around and able to monitor on shorter time frames or wait for Mondays candle close.
The flip side of this of course is you might want to consider counter trend longs (half stake) back up to these areas. Look at Thursdays chart and see how price closed completely outside the bollingers. What did price do? Went back inside. Therefore if the daily bb’s close some more then expect price to go back up at least for a little while. What may happen is that the daily bollingers stay open and the daily ones close. This suggests a short term move up followed by an overall move down. If you do get the opportunity to short 1.4000 is likely to be a strong area of support again, so don’t be greedy.
Chf: Broke & closed above the weekly trend line that goes back to early 2009. On Friday it pulled back down to this area which is also 78.6 on daily for me. Bollingers crucial again, especially the weekly that stopped last weeks move. . If breaks up again then could be limited move only as far as 1.0500/20. Thursdays daily candle was a pin bar reversal and the the last 3 daily candles suggest a reversal back down. Current monthly candle however is pin bar reversal UP! In other words this is all very mixed.
$/Yen: Stochastics and 5/8 nearly crossing on weekly chart suggests this is more to fall, but lot of Japanese news this week including interest rates. Upper Bollingers stayed closed on  last weeks weekly chart and opened down on Fridays daily chart. Also closed below 89.00 I am looking at short opportunities tomorrow if bb’s stay open on daily @ 90.00 or 50% fib at 90.20
Cad: Large weekly candle last week and 4 straight up days. Closed below 1.0600 and weekly trend line is same area and 78.6 daily fib at 1.0622. All suggest that price will at least pullback here. Look back at big weekly candles on this pair for last few years ALMOST EVERY TIME there is a pullback the following week and current area is a logical place for this to happen. The flip side of course is that this forex & ANYTHING can happen!
Euro/Yen: Very interesting. Sat on weekly multiple bottom at 127.00 and currently outside daily bollingers (this will move down, at least a little at market open): If bb’s close with multiple bottom here I will be very tempted to long. Counter trend so half stake. We had a very similar situation last few weeks with the Euro Cad where it bounced 4 or 5 times off a multiple bottom before finally moving up Thursday/Friday. If break s down wait until after Mondays candle close.
Aud: Gold broke its 61.8% fib last week and therefore the Aud & Nzd followed it down . Break Thursday of previous strong support at 0.9022 was great but then went & stopped 4 pips above the psychological line at 0.9000. Tomorrow is a Public Holiday in Australia so this could be a thin market. Consider a pullback to 90.35/.0.9050 or 20+ pips below Fridays low at 0.8960 for short entries.
Nzd: Same as above. Very large weekly candle last week. Usually followed by a pullback. I have a daily trend line at 0.7145 which is also 61.8% of Fridays candle. Don’t know if it will get back that far though. Other option again is 20 pips below entry.
Aud/Jpy: Broke a daily diagonal support line at 81.70 which is also 61.8 of Fridays move. 50% fib is at 81.50 so again look for clues here.
The above are examples of analysis of some of the 11 forex pairs that I post on a daily basis in the members area of the low cost forex mentoring site that I run with Dean Saunders. If you would like to know more click on the following link:

Have a great week, good pip hunting,

regards,
Marc